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By Jon Stewart, Science reporter, BBC News, California - Detailed simulations of the Gulf of Mexico oil leak show that crude is likely to start spreading into the Atlantic Ocean soon. Once oil becomes caught in the Gulf of Mexico's fast moving Loop Current, it could be carried thousands of miles, around Florida, up the Atlantic coast of the US, and then out into the open ocean.
An animation by the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) suggests that concentrations of oil in the water south of Florida will start to become detectable around 70 to 90 days after a leak starts. The Deepwater Horizon rig sank on the 22nd April.
The animation, given to the BBC World Service's Science in Action programme, is based on a computer model of ocean currents and eddies, and assumes that conditions will be similar to those found in a typical year.
"At some time in the next six months it's highly highly likely that it will escape from the Gulf" "In the Atlantic Ocean there is a Western Boundary Current System, and the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current is part of this system," explains NCAR scientist Synte Peacock.
"So what happens is the current comes up through the Yucatan [Channel, the strait between Mexico and Cuba], and it does a clockwise loop within the gulf, and then shoots out and joins the Gulf Stream proper.
"So when something in the gulf gets caught up within that current, it can get out of there."
So with that definitely happen? Dr Peacock says: "At some time in the next six months it's highly highly likely that it will escape from the Gulf."..MORE....
